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How the active U.S. Tornado Season implies that El Niño may be holding on by a thread(ZWN24) (KEN24) (WEAT) (ZCU24) (CORN) (ZSX24) (SOYB) (TAGS) (DBA) (CCN24) (SBV24) (CANE) (KCN24) "How the active U.S. Tornado Season implies that El Niño may be holding on by a thread" by Jim Roemer - Meteorologist - Commodity Trading Advisor - Principal, Best Weather Inc. & Climate Predict - Publisher, Weather Wealth Newsletter
There will be yet another bout of severe weather this weekend over the Midwest that will make national headlines by Sunday. In the unfortunate midst of one of the worst U.S. tornado and severe weather seasons in years, there have been some incredible, weather-related moves in wheat, cocoa, and coffee over the last few weeks. I will be monitoring the ongoing drought in western Russia and Ukraine and the impact of the frost that has helped wheat prices soar 15% in recent weeks. The Russian situation is more typical of La Niña, not El Niño. In contrast, the wet spring with frequent Midwest tornadoes represents El Niño type conditions.
The bottom line is that over the next couple of months, the atmosphere will oscillate back and forth between El Niño and La Niña conditions (“EL NINO neutral”) By September, La Niña conditions should take hold (a key reason why NOAA, etc. are predicting the one of the worst hurricanes season ever).
Best Weather's Spider has been cautiously friendly towards wheat:
In addition, the western Pacific (NINO4 region) near Australia is still warmer than normal, while the eastern Pacific cools rapidly near Peru suggesting La Niña conditions will eventually form. Notice how this correlates quite well with wet in the Midwest and deep South. For example, the flooding in Houston TX this month is an El Niño signal (not a La NIña one).
SOURCE: WEATHERWEALTH NEWSLETTER Another signal that El Niño conditions are not completely dead yet, is the active U.S. tornado season. Notice how, in the worst tornado outbreaks since 2000, all four were either El Niño events or “El Niño neutral” (in between El Niño and La Niña). These analog years will be important in predicting not only corn belt summer weather, but also the Indian Monsoon for sugar prices, west African cocoa weather, and more.
So… what will our forecast be for the grain and soft commodity markets and what will my Weather Spiders suggest for potential investing strategies? We invite you to request a 2-week free trial to WeatherWealth here as we get right into the heat of global spring and summer weather markets: https://www.bestweatherinc.com/new-membership-options/ Thanks for your interest in commodity weather! Jim Roemer, Scott Mathews and the Weather Wealth Team.
Mr. Roemer owns Best Weather Inc., offering weather-related blogs for commodity traders and farmers. He also is a co-founder of Climate Predict, a detailed long-range global weather forecast tool. As one of the first meteorologists to become an NFA registered Commodity Trading Advisor, he has worked with major hedge funds, Midwest farmers, and individual traders for over 35 years. With a special emphasis on interpreting market psychology, coupled with his short and long-term trend forecasting in grains, softs, and the energy markets, he established a unique standing among advisors in the commodity risk management industry. Trading futures and options involves a significant risk of loss and is not suitable for everyone. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. There is no warranty or representation that accounts following any trading program will be profitable.
On the date of publication, Jim Roemer did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here. |
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